隨著美國(guó)各州重新開放經(jīng)濟(jì)，一些地區(qū)的新冠肺炎病例重新開始增加。美國(guó)傳染病專家安東尼·福奇近日表示，人們一直在談?wù)摰诙ㄒ咔?，但?shí)際上美國(guó)第一波疫情尚未結(jié)束。

What’s all this talk about a “second wave” of US coronavirus cases?

當(dāng)我們?cè)谡務(wù)撁绹?guó)“第二波”新冠疫情時(shí)，到底在談?wù)撌裁矗?/p>

In The Wall Street Journal last week, Vice President Mike Pence wrote in a piece headlined “There Isn’t a Coronavirus ‘Second Wave'” that the nation is winning the fight against the virus.

美國(guó)副總統(tǒng)邁克·彭斯上周在《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》發(fā)表了一篇題為《美國(guó)不存在“第二波”新冠疫情》的文章稱，美國(guó)就要取得抗擊新冠病毒斗爭(zhēng)的勝利了。

Many public health experts, however, suggest it’s no time to celebrate. About 120,000 Americans have died from the new virus and daily counts of new cases in the US are the highest they’ve been in more than a month, driven by alarming recent increases in the South and West.

然而，許多公共衛(wèi)生專家認(rèn)為，現(xiàn)在慶祝還為時(shí)尚早。美國(guó)已有大約12萬(wàn)人死于新冠病毒感染，且受南部和西部地區(qū)感染病例大幅上升的影響，美國(guó)每日新增感染病例數(shù)量已達(dá)到一個(gè)多月以來(lái)的新高。

But there is at least one point of agreement: “Second wave” is probably the wrong term to describe what’s happening.

但至少有一點(diǎn)是毋庸置疑的：用“第二波”來(lái)形容當(dāng)前的疫情很可能是錯(cuò)誤的。

“When you have 20,000-plus infections per day, how can you talk about a second wave?” said Dr. Anthony Fauci of the National Institutes of Health. “We’re in the first wave. Let’s get out of the first wave before you have a second wave.”

美國(guó)國(guó)家衛(wèi)生研究院的（國(guó)家過(guò)敏癥和傳染病研究所所長(zhǎng)）安東尼·福奇博士說(shuō)：“當(dāng)每天有兩萬(wàn)多感染病例時(shí)，你怎么能說(shuō)是第二波呢？我們正處于第一波疫情中。讓我們?cè)诘诙ㄒ咔榈絹?lái)之前先走出第一波疫情吧?！?/p>

Clearly there was an initial infection peak in April as cases exploded in New York City. After schools and businesses were closed across the country, the rate of new cases dropped somewhat.

今年4月份，紐約市感染病例激增，美國(guó)隨之出現(xiàn)了第一次感染高峰。隨后，全美各地學(xué)校和企業(yè)關(guān)閉，新增病例數(shù)量有所下降。

But “it’s more of a plateau, or a mesa,” not the trough after a wave, said Caitlin Rivers, a disease researcher at Johns Hopkins University’s Center for Health Security.

美國(guó)約翰斯·霍普金斯大學(xué)健康安全研究中心的疾病研究員凱特琳·里弗斯說(shuō)，但是“這更像是一座高原，或是一座平頂山（新增趨于平穩(wěn)的狀態(tài)）”，而不是高峰之后的低谷。

mesa [?me?s?]：n.臺(tái)地；[地理]平頂山

Scientists generally agree the nation is still in its first wave of coronavirus infections, albeit one that’s dipping in some parts of the country while rising in others.

科學(xué)家們普遍認(rèn)為，美國(guó)仍處于第一波新冠肺炎疫情之中，盡管一些地區(qū)的感染病例正在減少，但另一些地區(qū)卻在增加。

“This virus is spreading around the United States and hitting different places with different intensity at different times,” said Dr. Richard Besser, chief executive of the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation who was acting director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention when a pandemic flu hit the US in 2009.

羅伯特·伍德·約翰遜基金會(huì)首席執(zhí)行官理查德·貝瑟博士說(shuō)：“新冠病毒正在美國(guó)蔓延，并在不同的時(shí)間以不同的強(qiáng)度襲擊不同的地方?！?2009年（甲型H1N1）流感大流行襲擊美國(guó)時(shí)，他是美國(guó)疾病控制和預(yù)防中心的代理主任。

Dr. Arnold Monto, a University of Michigan flu expert, echoed that sentiment.

密歇根大學(xué)流感專家阿諾德·蒙托博士也表達(dá)了同樣的觀點(diǎn)。

“What I would call this is continued transmission with flare-ups,” he said.

他說(shuō)：“我認(rèn)為這是伴有突發(fā)情況的持續(xù)傳播。”

Flu seasons sometimes feature a second wave of infections. But in those cases, the second wave is a distinct new surge in cases from a strain of flu that is different than the strain that caused earlier illnesses.

流感季節(jié)有時(shí)會(huì)出現(xiàn)第二波感染。但在這些病例中，引發(fā)第二波病例激增的流感毒株與引起第一波流感的毒株不同。

strain[stre?n]：n.菌株

That’s not the case in the coronavirus epidemic.

新冠肺炎疫情不是這樣的情況。

Monto doesn’t think “second wave” really describes what’s happening now, calling it “totally semantics.”

蒙托不認(rèn)為“第二波”真正描述了現(xiàn)在的疫情，稱之為“完全語(yǔ)義化”。

Some worry a large wave of coronavirus might occur this fall or winter — after schools reopen, the weather turns colder and less humid, and people huddle inside more. That would follow seasonal patterns seen with flu and other respiratory viruses.

一些人擔(dān)心，美國(guó)今年秋天或冬天學(xué)校開學(xué)后，天氣變得更冷，也不那么潮濕了，人們更多地呆在室內(nèi)，可能會(huì)出現(xiàn)一波嚴(yán)重的新冠疫情。這將類似于流感和其他呼吸道病毒的季節(jié)性模式。

But the new coronavirus so far has been spreading more episodically and sporadically than flu, and it may not follow the same playbook.

但與流感相比，到目前為止新冠病毒的傳播更具偶然性和散發(fā)性，而且它可能不會(huì)遵循同樣的規(guī)律。

“It’s very difficult to make a prediction,” Rivers said. “We don’t know the degree to which this virus is seasonal, if at all.”

里弗斯說(shuō)：“人們很難做出預(yù)測(cè)。就算是，我們也不知道這種病毒在多大程度上是季節(jié)性的。”

【全球疫情最新數(shù)據(jù)】

美國(guó)約翰斯·霍普金斯大學(xué)22日發(fā)布的新冠疫情統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，截至美國(guó)東部時(shí)間22日12時(shí)33分（北京時(shí)間23日0時(shí)33分），全球累計(jì)新冠確診病例達(dá)到9003042例，累計(jì)死亡病例為469122例。

數(shù)據(jù)顯示，美國(guó)是疫情最嚴(yán)重的國(guó)家，累計(jì)確診病例2289168例，累計(jì)死亡病例120044例。累計(jì)確診病例超過(guò)20萬(wàn)例的國(guó)家還有巴西、俄羅斯、印度、英國(guó)、秘魯、智利、西班牙、意大利和伊朗。

英文來(lái)源：美聯(lián)社

翻譯&編輯：yaning