盡管美國三月份就業(yè)增長強勁，家庭積蓄見漲，但是在通貨膨脹“高燒不退”的情況下，美國前財政部長、投資大佬及各投行經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家都紛紛預(yù)測美國將于2023年陷入經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。

The US economy added nearly half a million jobs in March. The Dow Jones industrial average is within 6% of its record high. And US households accumulated roughly $2.5 trillion in excess savings throughout the pandemic.

三月份美國增加了近50萬就業(yè)崗位，道瓊斯工業(yè)平均指數(shù)漲幅創(chuàng)下6%的新高，美國家庭在疫情期間的超額儲蓄總額累計達(dá)近2.5萬億美元（約合人民幣15.9萬億元）。

Still, despite all the good news, predictions of an impending recession are widespread on Wall Street.

盡管這些都是好消息，但是華爾街卻普遍認(rèn)為美國經(jīng)濟(jì)即將陷入衰退。

Billionaire investors, former Federal Reserve officials, and now even investment banks have repeatedly warned that the economy may hit a wall in 2023.

億萬富翁投資人、美聯(lián)儲前官員甚至連投資銀行都反復(fù)警告美國經(jīng)濟(jì)可能在2023年出現(xiàn)危機。

What’s driving the recent string of downtrodden economic forecasts?

是什么導(dǎo)致了近期這一連串對美國經(jīng)濟(jì)的唱衰之聲呢？

For some, it’s a matter of historical comparison. Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers emphasized in a recent Washington Post op-ed that current economic conditions are undeniably reminiscent of previous pre-recession periods in US history.

對某些人而言，這是歷史比較的結(jié)果。美國前財政部長勞倫斯·薩默斯在近期發(fā)表在《華盛頓郵報》上的一篇專欄文章中強調(diào)，當(dāng)前的經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況無疑讓人聯(lián)想起美國歷史上的幾次衰退前的情形。

"Over the past 75 years, every time inflation has exceeded 4% and unemployment has gone below 5%, the US economy has gone into a recession within two years,” Summers wrote.

薩默斯寫道：“在過去75年間，每次通脹率超過4%，失業(yè)率降到5%以下，美國經(jīng)濟(jì)就會在兩年內(nèi)陷入衰退?！?/p>

Today, the US inflation rate is nearing 8%, and the unemployment rate fell to just 3.6% in March. As a result, Summers now sees an 80% chance of a US recession by next year.

如今，美國通脹率接近8%，失業(yè)率在三月份降至3.6%。因此，薩默斯認(rèn)為美國有80%的幾率將在明年陷入經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。

The economists noted that the war in Ukraine has disrupted global supply chains and dramatically increased commodity prices and energy costs in the US and EU.

經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家指出，烏克蘭戰(zhàn)爭打亂了全球供應(yīng)鏈，大幅提升了美國和歐盟的商品價格和能源開支。

CIBC’s Pzegeo said that inflation can often lead to wealth destruction as well, especially when rising consumer prices outpace wage growth.

加拿大帝國商業(yè)銀行的波澤蓋奧稱，通貨膨脹往往也會導(dǎo)致財富縮水，尤其是在消費價格漲幅超過工資漲幅時。

"It acts as a tax. So give it a little bit of time in the economy, and it’ll eat away at your wealth and set the stage for a recession,” he said.

他說：“通貨膨脹的作用就如同征稅。假以時日，你的財富將會逐漸縮水，從而為經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退埋下了伏筆?！?/p>

Recent GDP forecasts from the Conference Board have also led to fears that a recession could be on the horizon. US real GDP growth is now expected to slow to an annual rate of just 1.7% in the first quarter of 2022, compared with 7% annual growth seen in the fourth quarter of 2020.

世界大型企業(yè)聯(lián)合會最近預(yù)測的國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值也引發(fā)了人們對經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的擔(dān)憂。預(yù)測報告指出，2022年一季度美國的實際國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值年化增速將放慢至1.7%，而2020年四季度美國的國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值年化增速為7%。

For other economic forecasters, the Federal Reserve is the key to predictions of an impending recession.

其他經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測者指出，美聯(lián)儲是預(yù)測美國是否會陷入經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的關(guān)鍵。

Now, with pandemic restrictions fading and inflation moving to highs not seen in four decades, the Fed is faced with a difficult task: ensuring a so-called soft landing for the US economy. The goal is to raise interest rates and end QE in order to cool economic growth and combat inflation—all without causing a recession.

眼下，隨著美國防疫限制措施逐步取消，通脹率創(chuàng)下四十年來的新高，美聯(lián)儲面臨著一個艱巨的任務(wù)：確保美國經(jīng)濟(jì)實現(xiàn)所謂的軟著陸。美聯(lián)儲的目標(biāo)是提高利率，終結(jié)量化寬松政策，從而在不引發(fā)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的情況下給經(jīng)濟(jì)降溫并抑制通脹。

Investing legend Carl Icahn—the founder and chairman of Icahn Enterprises who boasts an estimated fortune of over $15 billion—said in a March interview he believes the Fed isn’t up for the job.

投資界傳奇人物卡爾·伊坎在三月份的一次訪談中表示，他認(rèn)為美聯(lián)儲做不到。伊坎是資產(chǎn)超150億美元的伊坎企業(yè)的創(chuàng)始人及董事長。

"I really don’t know if they can engineer a soft landing,” Icahn said. “I think there’s going to be a rough landing.”

伊坎說：“我真的不知道美聯(lián)儲要怎么實現(xiàn)軟著陸。我認(rèn)為一定會出現(xiàn)硬著陸。”

The billionaire now believes the US economy will see a recession “or even worse” by the end of next year, and Deutsche Bank’s economists agree.

這位億萬富翁現(xiàn)在認(rèn)為美國經(jīng)濟(jì)將會在明年底前出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退“甚至更糟”，對此德意志銀行的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家也表示認(rèn)同。

"We no longer see the Fed achieving a soft landing. Instead, we anticipate that a more aggressive tightening of monetary policy will push the economy into a recession,” the bank’s economists, led by Matthew Luzzetti, wrote in a recent note.

以馬修·盧澤蒂為首的德意志銀行經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家在近日的一份備忘錄中寫道：“我們不再認(rèn)為美聯(lián)儲能夠?qū)崿F(xiàn)軟著陸。我們預(yù)期更激進(jìn)的貨幣緊縮政策將會使美國經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入衰退?！?/p>

英文來源：財富雜志網(wǎng)站

翻譯&編輯：丹妮