在厄爾尼諾年過去之后，全球變暖卻沒有停下腳步，全球地表溫度已經(jīng)連續(xù)十個(gè)月打破紀(jì)錄，這讓科學(xué)家迷惑不解，這是厄爾尼諾事件的余波，還是地球氣候在加速惡化？

Another month, another global heat record that has left climate scientists scratching their heads and hoping this is an El Ni?o-related hangover rather than a symptom of worse-than-expected planetary health.

過去的一個(gè)月再次刷新了全球高溫紀(jì)錄。高溫不退的現(xiàn)象讓氣候科學(xué)家感到迷惑不解，他們更希望這是厄爾尼諾事件的余波，而不是地球健康狀況比預(yù)期更糟的征兆。

Global surface temperatures in March were 0.1C higher than the previous record for the month, set in 2016, and 1.68C higher than the pre-industrial average, according to data released on Tuesday by the Copernicus Climate Change Service.

哥白尼氣候變化服務(wù)局4月9日發(fā)布的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，三月份全球地表溫度比2016年創(chuàng)下的同月最高紀(jì)錄高出0.1攝氏度，比工業(yè)化前平均水平高出1.68攝氏度。

This is the 10th consecutive monthly record in a warming phase that has shattered all previous records. Over the past 12 months, average global temperatures have been 1.58C above pre-industrial levels.

這是全球地表溫度連續(xù)第十個(gè)月打破紀(jì)錄。在過去的12個(gè)月，氣候持續(xù)變暖，全球平均溫度比工業(yè)化前水平高出了1.58攝氏度。

However the sharp increase in temperatures over the past year has surprised many scientists, and prompted concerns about a possible acceleration of heating.

過去一年氣溫的急劇上升讓許多科學(xué)家感到驚訝，引發(fā)了科學(xué)家對(duì)于全球變暖加速的擔(dān)憂。

Diana ürge-Vorsatz, one of the vice-chairs of the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), noted the planet has been warming at a pace of 0.3C per decade over the past 15 years, almost double the 0.18C per decade trend since the 1970s. “Is this within the range of climate variability or signal of accelerated warming? My concern is it might be too late if we just wait to see,” she tweeted.

聯(lián)合國政府間氣候變化專門委員會(huì)副主席戴安娜·尤爾格·沃薩茨指出，過去15年間，地球以每十年升高0.3攝氏度的速度在變暖，相比上世紀(jì)70年代之后每十年升高0.18攝氏度的變暖趨勢幾乎翻番。她在推特（X網(wǎng)站）上寫道：“這是正常范圍內(nèi)的氣候變化還是全球變暖加速的信號(hào)？我擔(dān)心如果我們只是觀望而不采取行動(dòng)，到時(shí)候恐怕就來不及了?！?/p>

Gavin Schmidt, the director of Nasa’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, noted that temperature records are being broken each month by up to 0.2C.

美國宇航局戈達(dá)德空間研究所所長加文·施密特指出，每月地表溫度水平最高比先前紀(jì)錄超出了0.2攝氏度。

Schmidt listed several plausible causes of the anomaly – the El Ni?o effect, reductions in cooling sulphur dioxide particles due to pollution controls, fallout from the January 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcanic eruption in Tonga, and the ramping up of solar activity in the run-up to a predicted solar maximum.

施密特列舉出了幾個(gè)可能導(dǎo)致氣候反常的原因：厄爾尼諾效應(yīng)、對(duì)空氣起到冷卻作用的二氧化硫因污染防控而減少、2022年1月湯加火山噴發(fā)噴出的火山灰和溫室氣體、太陽活動(dòng)高峰期到來前太陽活動(dòng)的增加。

But based on preliminary analyses, he said these factors were not sufficient to account for the 0.2C increase: “If the anomaly does not stabilise by August – a reasonable expectation based on previous El Ni?o events – then the world will be in uncharted territory. It could imply that a warming planet is already fundamentally altering how the climate system operates, much sooner than scientists had anticipated.”

但是，施密特表示，基于初步分析發(fā)現(xiàn)，這些因素不足以導(dǎo)致0.2攝氏度的升溫。他說：“如果異常升溫現(xiàn)象到今年8月還在繼續(xù)（8月前的升溫還可看作是上一次厄爾尼諾事件的余波），那么地球的前路將無法預(yù)知。這可能暗示著全球變暖已經(jīng)從根本上改變了氣候系統(tǒng)的運(yùn)行方式，這一改變來得遠(yuǎn)比科學(xué)家預(yù)期的要早得多?！?/p>

The core of the problem – fossil fuel emissions – is well known and largely uncontested in the scientific community. A survey of nearly 90,000 climate-related studies shows a 99.9% consensus that humans are altering the climate by burning gas, oil, coal and trees.

全球變暖問題的核心——化石燃料排放——是眾所周知的，而且在科學(xué)界也基本沒有爭議。一項(xiàng)對(duì)近9萬項(xiàng)氣候相關(guān)研究的調(diào)查顯示，99.9%的研究一致認(rèn)為人類燃燒天然氣、石油、煤炭和木材的行為導(dǎo)致了氣候變化。

"Stopping further warming requires rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions,” said Samantha Burgess, the deputy director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service.

哥白尼氣候變化服務(wù)局副局長薩曼莎·伯吉斯表示：“阻止全球進(jìn)一步變暖需要快速減少溫室氣體排放量?！?/p>

Michael E Mann, the scientist whose 1999 “hockey-stick graph” showed the sharp rise in global temperatures since the industrial age, said the current trends were to be expected given the continuing rise in emissions. But he said that should not be a source of comfort. “The world is warming AS FAST as we predicted – and that’s bad enough,” he tweeted.

曾在1999年繪制出全球氣溫自工業(yè)時(shí)代以來急劇上升的“曲棍球曲線圖”的邁克爾·E·曼表示，鑒于溫室氣體排放量的持續(xù)上升，當(dāng)前的趨勢是可以被預(yù)見到的。但是他認(rèn)為，這不能成為人類麻醉自己的理由。他在推特（X網(wǎng)站）上寫道：“地球正以我們預(yù)測的速度在變暖，這已經(jīng)夠糟了。”

英文來源：衛(wèi)報(bào)

翻譯&編輯：丹妮

審校：董靜、齊磊