據(jù)美國(guó)彭博新聞社和商業(yè)內(nèi)幕網(wǎng)綜合報(bào)道，全球債券巨頭品浩（Pimco）最新預(yù)計(jì)，美國(guó)不良商業(yè)房地產(chǎn)貸款的“高度”集中將導(dǎo)致另一輪銀行破產(chǎn)潮。迫在眉睫的美國(guó)商業(yè)房地產(chǎn)貸款危機(jī)讓分析師和市場(chǎng)觀察人士憂心忡忡，預(yù)計(jì)到明年年底將有2.1 萬(wàn)億美元的債務(wù)到期。

Pacific Investment Management Co. expects more regional bank failures in the US because of a “very high” concentration of troubled commercial real estate loans on their books.

債券巨頭品浩預(yù)計(jì)，由于不良商業(yè)房地產(chǎn)貸款“高度”集中，美國(guó)將有更多區(qū)域性銀行倒閉。

“The real wave of distress is just starting” for lenders to everything from malls to offices, John Murray, Pimco’s head of global private commercial real estate team, said in an interview.

品浩全球私人商業(yè)房地產(chǎn)團(tuán)隊(duì)負(fù)責(zé)人約翰·穆雷在接受采訪時(shí)表示，對(duì)于商場(chǎng)寫(xiě)字樓等商業(yè)房地產(chǎn)的貸款方來(lái)說(shuō)，“真正的困境浪潮才剛剛開(kāi)始”。

Uncertainty over when the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates has exacerbated challenges faced by the CRE sector, where high borrowing costs have hammered valuations and triggered defaults, leaving lenders stuck with assets that are tough to sell.

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)降息的不確定性加劇了商業(yè)房地產(chǎn)（CRE）行業(yè)面臨的挑戰(zhàn)，高借貸成本壓低了估值并引發(fā)了違約，導(dǎo)致作為貸方的區(qū)域性銀行被困在難以出售的資產(chǎn)上。

“The combination of rising rates plus recessionary pressures creates real challenges for commercial real estate, from both a capital markets and fundamentals perspective,” Murray said.

穆雷表示：“從資本市場(chǎng)和基本面角度來(lái)看，利率上升結(jié)合衰退壓力，給商業(yè)房地產(chǎn)帶來(lái)了真正的挑戰(zhàn)?！?/p>

Things are not looking up for the US office sector, with loan performance set to slump even further in 2025, Fitch Ratings said. After the market significantly underperformed Fitch's year-to-date expectations in May, the rating agency has revised its office delinquency forecast to 8.4% and 11% through this and next year. That's up from projections of 8.1% and 9.9%, respectively.

據(jù)商業(yè)內(nèi)幕網(wǎng)近日?qǐng)?bào)道，惠譽(yù)評(píng)級(jí)表示，美國(guó)寫(xiě)字樓市場(chǎng)前景不容樂(lè)觀，2025 年貸款表現(xiàn)將進(jìn)一步下滑。在 5 月份市場(chǎng)表現(xiàn)明顯低于惠譽(yù)對(duì)今年迄今業(yè)績(jī)的預(yù)期后，該評(píng)級(jí)機(jī)構(gòu)已將今年和明年的寫(xiě)字樓貸款拖欠率預(yù)測(cè)分別上調(diào)至 8.4% 和 11%。這一數(shù)字高于此前預(yù)測(cè)的 8.1% 和 9.9%。

Driving the fallout are still-elevated interest rates, cooling economic growth, and a stricter lending environment, Fitch wrote on Friday. That's all happening against a broad decline in office demand, as hybrid or fully remote work has become an entrenched norm.

惠譽(yù)7日表示，造成這一影響的因素包括利率居高不下、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)放緩以及貸款環(huán)境趨緊。這一切都發(fā)生在辦公需求普遍下降的情況下，因?yàn)榛旌匣蛲耆h(yuǎn)程工作已成為一種根深蒂固的常態(tài)。

"The recovery of the office sector will be slower and more drawn out during this cycle than following the global financial crisis and will lead to permanent impairments in property values, weaker performance, and higher loan losses," Fitch wrote.

惠譽(yù)稱：“與2008年全球金融危機(jī)之后相比，此輪周期中寫(xiě)字樓行業(yè)的復(fù)蘇將更加緩慢、耗時(shí)，并將導(dǎo)致美國(guó)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)值永久性受損、業(yè)績(jī)表現(xiàn)疲軟以及貸款損失增加?！?/p>

A looming commercial real estate loan crash has been a persistent worry among analysts and market observers, with $2.1 trillion in debt expected to mature by the end of next year.

分析師和市場(chǎng)觀察人士對(duì)迫在眉睫的美國(guó)商業(yè)房地產(chǎn)貸款崩盤(pán)一直感到擔(dān)憂，預(yù)計(jì)到明年年底將有2.1 萬(wàn)億美元的債務(wù)到期。

編輯：董靜

審校：陳丹妮 韓鶴

英文來(lái)源：Bloomberg, Business Insider