聯(lián)合國(guó)國(guó)際勞工組織近日發(fā)出警告，新冠肺炎疫情造成的就業(yè)損失遠(yuǎn)超先前估計(jì)，全球在今年第二季度損失了4億個(gè)全職工作，美洲形勢(shì)尤為嚴(yán)峻。同時(shí)，新冠肺炎疫情還加劇了職場(chǎng)性別不平等。

The coronavirus pandemic is expected to have resulted in a 14% drop in global working hours in the second quarter of 2020, the International Labour Organization has said.

國(guó)際勞工組織近日稱，2020年第二季度，新冠肺炎疫情預(yù)計(jì)將導(dǎo)致全球工作時(shí)間減少14%。

The United Nations’ labor agency said this updated fall in working hours was the equivalent of 400 million full-time job losses globally in the second quarter, based on a standard 48-hour working week.

聯(lián)合國(guó)國(guó)際勞工組織稱，按每周工作48小時(shí)的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)計(jì)算，最新統(tǒng)計(jì)的工作時(shí)間降幅相當(dāng)于第二季度全球減少4億個(gè)全職工作崗位。

This marked a “sharp increase” on the 10.7% fall in working hours, or 305 million job losses, that the ILO forecasted for that period, in its previous report on the impact of Covid-19 on the labor market, published in May.

國(guó)際勞工組織5月份發(fā)布的關(guān)于新冠肺炎對(duì)勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)影響的報(bào)告預(yù)測(cè)稱，今年第二季度全球工作時(shí)間預(yù)計(jì)減少10.7%（即3.05億個(gè)全職工作）。而最新數(shù)據(jù)與之相比大幅上升。

In this fifth edition of its “Covid-19 and the world of work” monitor, the ILO said that the Americas were the most affected region, with an estimated 18.3% drop in working hours, or 70 million full-time jobs.

在第五版“新冠肺炎與全球工作”監(jiān)測(cè)報(bào)告中，國(guó)際勞工組織表示，美洲是受影響最嚴(yán)重的地區(qū)，工作時(shí)間預(yù)計(jì)減少了18.3%，即7000萬(wàn)個(gè)全職工作。

The working-hour losses are calculated based on the ILO’s “nowcasting” model, which is statistical forecasting drawing on real-time economic and labor market data. It uses the fourth quarter of 2019 as the basis for falls.

工作時(shí)間損失是根據(jù)國(guó)際勞工組織的“即時(shí)預(yù)測(cè)”模型計(jì)算的，該模型利用實(shí)時(shí)經(jīng)濟(jì)和勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行統(tǒng)計(jì)預(yù)測(cè)，并與2019年第四季度做對(duì)比。

In the first quarter, the ILO calculated a 5.4% fall in working hours worldwide, equating to 155 million jobs, in comparison to the fourth quarter of last year.

據(jù)國(guó)際勞工組織計(jì)算，今年第一季度全球工作時(shí)間較去年第四季度減少5.4%，相當(dāng)于1.55億個(gè)全職工作。

The ILO said there were multiple factors causing this global decline such as, shorter working hours, temporary leave — or furlough — as well as unemployment and “inactivity.”

國(guó)際勞工組織表示，造成這一數(shù)據(jù)下降的因素有很多，如工作時(shí)間縮短、臨時(shí)休假（或暫時(shí)解雇）、失業(yè)和“不活躍”等。

furlough[?f??l??]：n.休假；暫時(shí)解雇；放假

2020年下半年全球職場(chǎng)展望

The ILO’s report also outlined three different scenarios for a labor market recovery in the second half of the year.

國(guó)際勞工組織的報(bào)告還概述了今年下半年勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)復(fù)蘇的三種不同情景。

The baseline model projects a 4.9% decline in working hours, or 140 million job losses, compared to the fourth quarter of 2019. This scenario is assuming a rebound in economic activity according to existing forecasts, the lifting of workplace lockdown restrictions, in addition to a recovery in consumption and investment.

根據(jù)基線模型預(yù)測(cè)，與2019年第四季度相比，今年下半年全球工作時(shí)間將減少4.9%，相當(dāng)于損失1.4億個(gè)全職工作。這一設(shè)想是在假定經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)根據(jù)現(xiàn)有預(yù)測(cè)出現(xiàn)復(fù)蘇、解除工作場(chǎng)所封鎖限制以及消費(fèi)和投資復(fù)蘇的前提下得出的。

A pessimistic scenario would see an estimated 11.9% fall in working hours, or 340 million job losses. This is based on there being a second wave of coronavirus cases, prompting the return of lockdown restrictions, therefore meaning a “significantly slow recovery.”

按照悲觀的估計(jì)，全球工作時(shí)間將減少11.9%，相當(dāng)于損失3.4億個(gè)全職工作。這是基于出現(xiàn)第二波新冠疫情，促使封鎖限制恢復(fù)，因而“恢復(fù)非常緩慢”的前提下得出的。

The optimistic model would work out to an estimated 1.2% decrease in working hours, or 34 million job cuts. This best-case scenario would be the result of workers’ activities resuming quickly, “significantly boosting aggregate demand and job creation.”

按照樂觀的估計(jì)，預(yù)計(jì)全球工作時(shí)間將減少1.2%，相當(dāng)于損失3400萬(wàn)個(gè)全職工作。在職員盡快復(fù)工，“從而顯著提振總需求和創(chuàng)造就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)”的前提下，才會(huì)出現(xiàn)這種最樂觀的情況。

加劇職場(chǎng)性別不平等

The ILO report also highlighted the disproportionate effect of the pandemic on female workers. It pointed out that 510 million, or 40%, of all employed women globally work in the four most hard-hit sectors by the coronavirus crisis, compared to 36.6% of men.

國(guó)際勞工組織的報(bào)告還強(qiáng)調(diào)說(shuō)，新冠肺炎疫情對(duì)女性的影響更大。該機(jī)構(gòu)指出，全球有5.1億女性（占全體就業(yè)女性的40%）在受到新冠疫情沖擊最大的四個(gè)行業(yè)工作，而在男性中這一比例為36.6%。

The fact that women also dominate the domestic work, health and social care sectors, has meant that they are at greater risk of infection and transmission of the virus and of losing income. Meanwhile, the distribution of unpaid care work of children, for example, has become more unequal during the pandemic, made worse by the closure of schools and care services.

女性在家務(wù)、衛(wèi)生保健和社會(huì)護(hù)理部門也占主導(dǎo)地位，這意味著她們感染和傳播病毒以及失去收入的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)更大。與此同時(shí)，無(wú)償照料兒童等任務(wù)分配在新冠肺炎疫情期間更加不平等，學(xué)校和育兒機(jī)構(gòu)的關(guān)閉使情況惡化。

The ILO said this impact on women risked undoing some of the progress on gender equality in recent decades and exacerbating work-related gender inequalities.

國(guó)際勞工組織表示，這種對(duì)女性的影響可能會(huì)破壞近幾十年來(lái)在性別平等方面取得的一些進(jìn)展，并加劇職場(chǎng)性別不平等。

英文來(lái)源：CNBC

翻譯&編輯：yaning